MOTO betting

There’s a good deal of money to be obtained this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k in the main tournament. I’ll be going thicker than normal this week chasing the significant GPP prizes, and I will play less money games than usual. This is actually the first time we’ve observed a $30k top prize, therefore I think it’s worth chasing if you have the bankroll to get it.
We did lose the co-main occasion with Max Holloway pulling from the struggle against Brian Ortega, so we’re now down to 11 fights and we ought to observe a great deal of ties with this card with the more popular lineups. If you are chasing that $30K then you’ll want to try and be a bit different with your lineup so you can distinguish yourself from the remainder of the field. That said, let’s get to a few plays I like in addition to my fade of the week.
Money Game play of the week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing on this fight is far off from the betting line. On DK, Felder is 1,400 less than his competitor, Mike Perry. On the gambling line, Felder is your -150 favorite. That’s just too much line worth to pass on in cash games which makes Felder the”free square” this week. Even when he loses this battle, he should be highly owned it won’t even damage your lineup in cash games. In GPP’s, Felder will be among the greatest owned fighters on the card and if he loses there then it could kill your lineup, so perhaps think about avoiding the chalk there if you can. But with this crazy line value we are getting here, Paul Felder is the easy choice for the money game play of this week.
GPP drama of this week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this sounds a bit weird since I literally just chose Paul Felder because my money play of this week, but hear me out. In cash games, we do not care about possession. In case Felder is 90% owned in cash games, then it doesn’t damage your lineup since only 10 percent of lineups didn’t have him and you merely need to be top ~50 percent of the area to money in money games. In GPPs, I’m guessing Felder will probably be over 50% possessed. When he loses, that’s half of the area that’s dead without a shot at winning 1st place.
Mike Perry on the other hand will be less than 20% owned, and closer to 10% simply because of the mispriced line. If Felder kills and loses off 50 percent of lineups, then you also get a win with the low owned man to set you in a much better location of a solo 1st place win and maybe hitting that $30k. Perry has the capability to KO anybody and Paul Felder is carrying this fight on short notice in a weight class above his division. Can it truly shock you that much if Perry could KO him? In GPPs, we’re looking for that boom or bust play and that’s Mike Perry this week making him my GPP drama of the week.
Underdog play of this week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis would have been a -500 favored over Michael Chiesa if this fight happened 5 decades ago, but now we get a fading Pettis as a underdog and $1,000 less costly than Chiesa on DraftKings. I believe Pettis can continue to keep this fight standing for many the fight and that will give him a huge advantage. He is also dangerous on the floor himself and when he’s taken I think he is going to have the ability to get back up if he is not able to get a submission of his very own. If Pettis can acquire a determination then I presume he will pay off his DK price tag and will be a good underdog to utilize so you can conserve salary in your lineups. I may also see this fight ending from Pettis dropping Chiesa with a body kick and if that happens he will probably be on the winning lineup when he can make it happen in round 1.
Fade of the week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I do think that he wins the fight, but I don’t find him paying that large price . He does not fight at a hefty rate and he hasn’t gotten a takedown in his past 4 wins and the ground is where he’ll have his main advantage in this matchup. In those previous 4 wins, Assuncao hasn’t scored over 78 DK points and at his salary this week I need at least 91 points out of him to pay that much. I’d rather pay up for the men higher priced than Assuncao, or even go down to Vannata or Miocic. I will have at least 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will probably be in 0 of them, which makes him my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 on this link below:
http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks

This week, we’ve got a 13-fight card in Boise, Idaho. It is headlined by Junior Dos Santos vs Blagoy Ivanov, who will be making his UFC debut. DraftKings has smaller competitions with this card since it’s just a Fight Night card using lesser known title, but there’s still well over $100k to be won. I will be chasing my fair share of the money and I hope you guys will be too. Listed below are a couple plays I enjoy this weekend along with my fade of this week.
Money Game play of the week — Alexander Volkanovski ($9,200)
I believe Volkanovski is the”safest” play on this card along with also his -300 gaming lineup would concur with me. That’s where I will be starting my lineup this week and I will figure out the rest from there. Volkanovski averages 116.5 DK points during his first four UFC fights therefore he has a ton of upside too. He could potential score over two winners on this card combined. I really do think he is in drama for GPPs as well for this reason, but he will likely be the heaviest owned fighter on the card and we do not care about possession as much in money games. I’d suggest paying up for the expensive price tag on your cash games and then search for at least 3 others wins you are confident in.
GPP play of this week — Junior Dos Santos ($8,700)
JDS should function as way better striker inside this fight and I think this is where the fight will occur. He could get KO’d in the opening minutes of this battle and score 0 points, but that is what makes him a GPP play in lieu of a cash game play. With these two Heavyweights, we should likely find a KO inside the 25-minues and I think the former champion, JDS, will be the one to get it. He has great takedown defense so he ought to be able to maintain this battle on the feet where he will have a 4-inch reach advantage to work with.
Underdog play of the week — Niko Price ($7,900)
Niko will be my underdog drama of the week. The odds demonstrate that the fight should be fairly close and there’s a great chance he utilizes his wrestling to obtain the advantage. In 5 fights he hasn’t seen a decision yet, and there’s a possibility it stays that way if he gets Brown to the floor. Niko has some slick entrances in his arsenal along with a great deal of heart. On the feet, Brown probably has the advantage with his reach, but Cost does have some sneaky power also, which can not be overlooked. Overall, I like this as a GPP play.
Fade of this week — Alejandro Perez ($9,100)
Perez is the 2nd most expensive fighter on this card and he is just $100 less expensive than Volkanovski. In my opinion, Perez will need a finish to have a shot at paying that pricey salary and that I don’t wish to invest in that, personally. He’s never landed greater than one takedown at a fight and Wineland has excellent takedown defense, so we should see this battle occur on the toes. I think Perez needs to be the person to receive his hands raised in the conclusion but I think it’s going to be via decision. If that’s the case then he can score ~60 points in a win, and also at $9.1k that isn’t going to win anyone a championship. I’ll be complete fading Perez this week and hoping he doesn’t get the finish and he is my official fade of this week.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown using investigation on each struggle, my private approaches & recommendations, and also my selection prediction for every fight then it is possible to find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
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This weekend we have an early card on Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I really do like these ancient cards so that I can wake up and have a DraftKings sweat and then go out and revel in the remainder of the day when the fights are over. This Sunday’s card will occur in Hamburg, Germany and there are plenty of fighters making their UFC debut. Because of this, I believe we ought to have a large edge this week should we put in the work. Most casual players won’t be doing research on these names they’ve not heard and will only be throwing lineups trying to get lucky and hit on a huge score. I will be chasing the large $15k top prize in the $8 GPP in addition to the Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in cash games, mainly H2Hs, but I will be taking numerous shots at these big prizes. Here are a few plays I like this week in Addition to my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It’s an arduous card that Sunday and I believe we will see a good deal of people making errors in cash games. Whenever I believe I can guarantee a complete 100+ points in a fight, I love to stack it in my money games and lock those factors. I think this fight will be a fun one and I highly doubt it belongs to the scorecards. I think we can observe multiple knockdowns too that can help, but I believe we readily get over 100+ points combined with these two guys. Let’s let everybody else make the mistakes and we can lock at a 100+ points and a triumph, then we just need to locate another 3 wins we are confident in.
GPP drama of the week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I believe that this matchup was set up to get Bermudez a triumph. He’s got a very slick submission game and if this fight goes to the ground I think he will pick up progress points fast and locate a submission. Grant has had issues with submission defense in his career and even if he is winning the toes, he still shoots in for takedowns every fight. I believe if Manny can’t get the takedown himself, Grant will eventually go for it himself and it’ll cost him. I believe we could observe a 1st round submission here which should easily get the 10x+ we are looking for in his $9.2k price tag.
Underdog play of this week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
If Shogun can win this fight he’ll easily pay off this price . He has 100-point upside and using a 7.5k salary that will certainly put him on the winning lineup when he can get there. Anthony Smith has been knocked more instances than Shogun and has fought considerably worse rivalry. I wouldn’t be surprised if Shogun is able to get a KO here against Smith, who’s carrying this fight on short notice. Shogun has markedly slowed down in the last couple of years but I believe that he still has enough in the tank to possibly pull off an upset victory here. I do want exposure to both guys in GPPs, but I think you need some vulnerability to Rua if you’re making numerous lineups.
Fade of the week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have a number of fades this week and I am going with a smaller player pool in hopes of my picks being correct and that I will hit the ideal combo. It is tough to choose one favorite fade this week however I shall pick Nick Hein. I do think Nick Hein will win this fight, and I think he will use takedowns to acquire the decision win here. Thus, you would think that seems good on DraftKings since wrestling stands up things. However, he does not chain together takedowns and he ends up with only 1 or 2 in his UFC wins. He doesn’t have much completing ability and that I don’t see him getting a submission. However, I believe we’ll see 2-3 takedowns here and him grinding his way to a Unanimous Decision victory as we’ve seen from him previously. Hein has 4 UFC wins and all these are his DraftKings game titles for all those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I am not interested in having any DK investment on Hein with these scores. That’s why he is my fade of the week.
If you’d like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown using analysis on every fight, my personal approaches & recommendations, along with also my select forecast for every struggle then it is possible to find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
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This weekend we have a complimentary Card on big FOX. We’re finally getting the rematch with Dustin Poirier vs Eddie Alvarez after their first fight ended in a No Contest. These are two of the most exciting fighters in the UFC and we should observe an wonderful struggle here. DraftKings has some adequate competitions out with this card and I was surprised to see a 20k top prize in their main tournament. That is precisely what I shall be pursuing and I will be making a lot of LUs to throw into that. Listed below are a few plays I enjoy for Saturday and my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (Dustin Poirier $8,800 AND Eddie Alvarez $7,400)
This is an easy way to begin my cash LU this week and I anticipate this to be very well known in most money game formats. These two have been on pace to get a high scoring fight in their first fight and I think we have a simple 100+ involving the both of them . I think that the winner of the fight will score over 100 points and then we add all of the sig strikes and other things from the loser as well. But we promise ourselves the win. The only way this fight does not score over 100 DK points is somebody gets kneed in the head illegal and the fight is stopped brief….
GPP play of this week — Hakeem Dawodu ($9,400)
I believe that this matchup was set up for Dawodu a triumph. In addition, I believe Islam Makhachev, who is $200 more, will be quite highly owned and this could be a fantastic pivot off him to distinguish your LU a little bit. I really do think Dawodu will obtain some good ownership too but I believe he’s a solid GPP play this week. I feel the most likely outcome in this struggle is Dawodu becoming a (T)KO win. He must pay off his $9.4k salary if this is the case, particularly if it is early. He’s a really good striker and we didn’t get to find out that in his UFC debut at which he was angry very early in the struggle. This is the best fit for him to showcase his striking and there was so much hype behind him going into his introduction. I believe we can see a 1st round KO here which makes Hakeem Dawodu my GPP play of the week.
Underdog drama of the week — Ion Cutelaba ($7,600)
The main reason Cutelaba is my underdog play of the week is because there is not any way he isn’t scoring at least 10x when he is able to get the win. He’s got big power and could find a 1st round KO score and here over 100 DK points. If he does this with his economical salary of $7.6k he’ll certainly be at the winning lineup. This is a solid fight to target either side but points per salary shrewd, Cutelaba has one of the higher ceilings on the card. I don’t see this fight going to conclusion and the winner must score highly. I think if you are making numerous lineups this weekend then you should definitely have vulnerability to Cutelaba.
Fade of this week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I am fading a couple of fighters this week personally, but the individual I never even considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It is not that I don’t think she could win, since she for sure could. However, I don’t see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a triumph. I think we’d need a complete from her in this fight to receive 10x that wages and I think that’s very unlikely to take place. The most Chookagian has ever scored in a UFC fight so far in her career is 83 DK points. That would not be enough here to place her at the winning lineup at her $8.7k price label. I think if you are making 20 or less lineups that Saturday you may safely fade Chookagian and when she gets a win it should not hurt much.
If you would like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown using analysis on each fight, my private strategies & suggestions, and my selection outlook for every fight then it is possible to discover that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
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There’s a good deal of money to be won this week DraftKings including a top prize of $30k in the main tournament. DK also has a lot of Qualifier competitions available this week, where the final event will pay $50k to 1st for those who did qualify to play in it. I’ll be chasing those as well because we have not ever had a $50k 1st place prize and I need it. I really do think we’ve got a fun card this Saturday and that I am all set to go into this 3-week break with a winning night at UFC 227. Listed below are a few plays I enjoy this weekend along with my fade of the week.
Cash Game play of the week — Demetrious Johnson ($9,400)
Demetrious Johnson is the most powerful play in most DFS MMA and he has the maximum ceiling too. DJ is the P4P best fight on earth (not counting Jon Jones) and he’s already beat Cejudo once before. This is the very first person I am plugging into my cash LU this week and I advise you to do exactly the same. DJ is practically guaranteed to score at least 100-points in a win, and he has a -550 betting line saying he should find the win again here. Play it safe and use DJ in cash. You can stack this fight also, however I think DJ is a must.
GPP play of the week — Thiago Santos ($9,200)
This is a good fight to goal this week because it most likely won’t visit a decision. Holland just fought on the Contender Series that a few weeks ago and didn’t receive a contract. But now he is on the PPV against one of the scariest strikers from the division. The ITD line for Santos is now -210 and the below 1.5 rounds betting line is -160. That tells me Vegas thinks this battle ends early and Santos is the man which should pick up the finish. At $9.2k, he easily pays that price tag off in a 1st round win and I think he’s a good shot at doing exactly that. I really don’t care for him as much in cash game formats though because both men have quite low floors, so this really is a GPP only play for me personally.
Underdog play of the week — Brett Johns ($7,400)
I believe everyone is writing off Brett Johns after his loss to Aljo Sterling and that is exactly why he’s so cheap on DraftKings this weekend. With the wrestling style Johns brings to the table, he has 100+ upside in a decision win. Of course, we are worried about him getting caught in a guillotine if he shoots takedowns, but when he can avoid I think he can win this battle and 10x his salary with a triumph. I really don’t think Johns will wish to hit with Munhoz to get 15-minutes so I really do believe he is going to be shooting takedowns. Those takedowns can get him filed, or they could get him a win on the scorecards. But this makes him a boom or bust play and that’s why he’s a solid underdog to pick in GPPs this week.
Fade of the week — Danielle Taylor ($7,500)
Even at a cheap $7.5k on DraftKings, Taylor will still need a end to cover that price tag off with her fashion. She has the worst fashion possible for scoring DraftKings stage and even if she gets a triumph here she could wind up scoring less than some losers on the card. Taylor will be the least possessed fighter in GPPs this week, so if you would like to spend your money on a 115 pound woman using a”punchers chance” of winning you a GPP, then you’ll be quite contrarian taking that path. But I don’t have any interest in investing my money into that I will have Taylor in 0 of my lineups this week. If I had been making 150 lineups, I would still complete fade Taylor here.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks

This weekend we’ve got a 13-fight card after that long 3-week break. I’m excited to have UFC back and I am prepared to win some cash on Saturday. The card will occur in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters creating their UFC introduction so it is always nice when you are already familiar with all the fighters on the card. Because this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings competitions are not the best, but there is still a great deal of cash to be obtained. I’ll be pursuing the large $15k top prize at the $8 GPP in addition to the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in money games, mainly H2Hs, but I will be taking multiple shots at these huge prizes. Here are a Couple of plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is how I’ll be starting my cash lineup. I will put in Vick and Gaethje then figure the rest out from there. Any battle Gaethje is in is filled with activity and his three UFC fights have been Fight Of The Year kind fights. Those types of fights are fantastic for DraftKings. Especially cash games since we can lock at a win and get all the points in the very best fight on the card. Usually 4 wins will find the business done in money games and we’ll get over 100 points with this fight. But with that triumph locked in, we just need to find 3 other people we feel good about.
GPP play of the week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It’s tough to need to pay $9.5k to get a guy like Barberena if you can just pay an extra $200 to get a -1000 preferred in Anders. But, I think that is what most people will do and that is what makes Barberena a good GPP play. I think we’ll get him at a somewhat lower ownership as a consequence of his large salary, and he has a very good shot at obtaining a 1st round win. If he can find a 1st round KO afterward he will have at least 100 points so he will pay off that high salary. If you think Ellenberger is completely faded, then I think you should get some Barberena on your lineups. His ITD lineup is -170 and Ellenberger resembles he’s a shell of his older self. I think Barberena does pick up an end in this fight so that I will throw him in some GPPs and expect he’s beneath possessed.
Underdog play of the week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is merely the effortless worth play of the week. Presently, Fili is your gambling popular at -115 over Michael Johnson in +105. However, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is just $7.5k. I love taking that value when it is available so that I think he is in play in all formats. He’ll be popular in tournaments with all the value we’re getting on him, but I am willing to eat that chalk and that I don’t want to get burnt by completely fading that worth. I do think this is the toughest fight on the card to phone, but if Fili keeps with his wrestling I presume he will have a fantastic shot at winning this battle. If the fight remains standing for 15-minutes, I’d favor MJ although not by a good deal. At $7.5k we don’t need a huge score from Fili so any win will probably do just fine. I am not going to pass up on this value and I think he is the simple underdog of this week on DK.
Fade of this week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This could just be my own personal bias but I will not have Drew Dober in some of my main ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my cash lineup. Dober has just proceeded for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he is mainly just looking to attack. I think this will be a striking battle also and I think it’s going to be nearer than the odds signal. At $8.9k I think we will need a complete from him to wind up on the winning GPP lineup and that I don’t see that occurring. If you do think Dober can get a KO, then you ought to be enjoying him. I’ll only be paying up someplace because I’m not sure he could get that finish and I wouldn’t be shocked if he even lost the struggle. I will say that I never look to utilize Dober at DraftKings, so I could get burned again here but I will stick with my Dober fade and he will be my fade of this week to get UFC Lincoln.
If you’d like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown using investigation on each struggle, my private strategies & suggestions, and also my selection outlook for every fight then it is possible to find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks

There’s a lot of cash to be obtained DraftKings including a top prize of $25k from the primary tournament. DK also has a lot of Qualifier competitions available this week, where the last event will pay $50k to 1st if you did qualify to perform in it. I will be pursuing those as well because we’ve not ever had a $50k 1st place prize and I need it. We didn’t have one fight fall off but we still have a 13-fight card. This is a great card to build your bankroll for the very first Sunday of NFL so it’s possible to chase that $1M.
Money Game play of this week — Zabit Magomedsharipov ($9,400)
Zabit will be super chalky in tournament. Everyone who had Shevchenko in their lineup is going to switch to Zabit and he will likely be the most possessed fighter around the slate. In cash games we don’t care about possession as much and I am going to be starting my money team with Zabit. I believe he is the easiest win on the card plus he has the maximum ceiling as well. I believe if you want to get sneaky and not use Zabit, the GPPs would be the place to do this. Lock him in money and take the easy triumph. Then you only have to find about 3 additional wins and you ought to have a winning cash group.
GPP play of the week — Alex White ($8,600)
I think Jim Miller is close to the end of his profession and I am presuming this is going to be the last time we see him in the UFC. I believe he is going to be given his 5th loss in a row and I am guessing it is going to be through knockout. I believe Alex White will be too strong and quick for Jim Miller at this stage in his career and I think he is going to be able to keep this battle on the feet. With everyone paying for Zabit in GPPs, Alex White and a few other mid-range favorites could be a fantastic way to go to create your lineups more contrarian and attempt to get 1st place in a GPP that way. I really do like White a fantastic bit in this struggle and I think he’s 100+ point possible at an $8.6k salary. Because of this, he is my GPP drama of the week.
Underdog drama of this week — Diego Sanchez ($7,300)
Diego Sanchez is my underdog play of the week because I do not believe Craig White isn’t any good. Sanchez may be entirely shot, and if this is the case he could get KO’d early. However, I don’t think Craig White should be over -200 against some other UFC fighter. Diego is cheap enough where it lets you find some of those higher favorites you enjoy in your lineup, and now I believe he will find a choice win here. He’ll be my pick to win, but it’s not a confident pick and I think he makes for a better GPP play than money punt.
Fade of the week — Aljamain Sterling ($8,500)
I’m looking forward to watching this fight and I’ll be choosing Aljo to get the win here. My issue is that I don’t think he is very likely to score highly, and maybe not even 10x his wages. I believe a whole lot of this fight will take place on the toes and Aljo does not throw at a high enough speed to score well in a striking match. He’ll need to find this battle to the ground several times and rack up some advance points for him to score tremendously. I just don’t see that occurring. I believe this will be a very close fight and I would rather just cover some of the fighters over Sterling. I think we’d be looking at a score about 70-75 DK points with an Aljo choice win here.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 on this link below:

This weekend, we’ve got a card in Brazil. DraftKings has some adequate contests out there with this Fight Night card, and this can be uncommon for these free ones. The principal tourney is the $8 entrance and pays $20k to 1st. That is the principal GPP I will be pursuing this week. As always, I’m in the 3-entry max and single entry GPPs too. However, this week DraftKings includes two competitions for trips out to Vegas to see the McGregor vs Khabib fight. Hotel flight, and fights all paid for. The floor chairs contest is a $33 entrance and the non-floor seats competition is only a $15 entry. I am going to have to take a few shots in that as well. Additionally, DraftKings simply released a contest for UFC 299 that’s a $10 entry with a gigantic $100,000 to 1st place. That’s unquestionably the greatest prize we have seen in DFS MMA, so let us build a bankroll this weekend so we can shoot some additional shots at that $100k. With that said, here are a few plays I enjoy this week in Addition to my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Livia Renata Souza ($9,600)
Livia Souza is the strongest triumph on the card and I believe she gets this battle ended early. This is where I am starting my money LUs this week. Just give me the -1100 favorite who’s being fed up an easy win here, for my cash games. I really do like a lot of the top favorites on this card, I simply are the most shocked when Souza lost. I think she is fine in both formats, but she will most likely be chalky in GPPs, therefore money games are the ideal place to get your Souza investment this week. Take this win, then find others and you should be good in money games.
GPP drama of this week — Charles Oliveira ($9,400)
I am a large Charles”Do Bronx” Oliveira enthusiast, and he’s a few of my favorites submissions in UFC history. I think we could see another awesome one here. This fight seems easy to call. Do Bronx will look for the early takedown and if he could get it then he probably receives a 1st round sub. If that happens he should lock up a strong 100 points and I am pretty certain in that being the results of the fight, so that is why he’s my GPP drama of the week. He is also my GPP drama of this week, rather than my Money play of this week for a reason. If he can’t get the takedown(s) early, then he will probably stop and get finished himself with strikes. I really don’t enjoy that risk of a low floor because of my own cash LU, therefore I prefer Souza there. However, in GPPs I like saving the $200 and going down to perform Bronx.
Underdog play of the week — Eryk Anders ($7,600)
I’d like Anders a lot more if he wasn’t taking this fight on short notice, and when it was not in Brazil. However he can have a clear path to victory here and that is by knocking outside Santos who doesn’t possess a great chin. Anders could also opt for takedowns in this struggle and he can win with a few hard GNP too. At $7.6k he will almost surely end up on the winning LU if he’s able to get the KO. This is the main event, so he’ll have 5 rounds to function with. I really do think this is a good matchup for Anders, however he must be aggressive and not hang out on the exterior. If he hangs out to the exterior as long Santos will eat him up with kisses and it could be a brief night for Anders. I will select him to get the win as an underdog in Brazil and I think he gets it done in the first two rounds with a KO. That will easily pay off his $7.6k salary and it’ll win you a GPP if you’re able to get your other five spots correct also.
Fade of this week — Sam Alvey ($9,200)
Sam Alvey is a fade for me. I wrote him up as my fade of this week here, I was quite wrong and that he scored over 100 points. Then so be it if this happens again . However, I refuse to rely on an early KO triumph to pay off a 9.2k salary by a guy who does not throw several strikes. At $9.2k I want at least 92 points out of Alvey if I roll up him and the only real way get caught that is with a 1st round KO win. That could occur here against a 42-year-old Lil Nog, but I am not willing to invest my money in it.
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This weekend we’ve got the biggest contest we have ever observed for DraftKings MMA. We’ve got a $10 entrance competition with $300,000 in total prizes, and $100,000 of the to 1st place. I never believed we would observe a 6-figure 1st place prize for MMA but that I was wrong and that I can not wait to pursue it. Conor McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov is going to be the biggest fight in UFC history and DraftKings simply made it bigger for us DFS players. We’re down to 12-fights so that we can see a number of ties for this 1st place prize, so strive to be different with your lineups somewhere, or make wages on the table to differ in that manner. With that said, here are a Couple of plays I like this weekend along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Luque is the”safest” drama on the card by a good margin in his -900 gaming lineup. I love plugging in these high odds guys in money so I can lock a win in there and fret about locating 3 other wins from my 5 additional areas. We generally only need 4 wins in money games to win against the cash line, so that’s what I take for in those 50/50 or double up games. Luque has been quite remarkable in his UFC conduct and he has beat some pretty big names. On paper, this is only one of his simplest matches yet. He also has big time upside with his finishing possible. He has an ITD line of -270, therefore that I think we could have 100+ points in this win. He is a good play in most formats, however he is going to be chalky in championships, so that’s why he is my money play of the week instead.
GPP drama of the week — Alexander Volkov ($8,700)
Heavyweights are almost always good to target in GPPs because it just takes 1 shot with a lot of these guys. I think that this is a good matchup for Volkov and he is priced at $8.7k weekly. If he can find a 1st round KO at the price, he will likely be on the winning LU. Same is true for Lewis, therefore he’s a good GPP play too. However, my choice to win will be Volkov and that I like his cost. I think a few men priced above him this week will be much higher owned, therefore we could find a heavyweight favored at lower ownership . Fight Doesn’t Go To Conclusion is presently lined at -190, therefore this is a fantastic GPP struggle to aim over all. If you enjoy the Black Beast to find the W, then he is a fantastic fighter to throw in your GPP LUs.
Underdog play of this week — Tony Martin ($7,400)
Here really is the best odds value on the card. Currently, Laflare is lined at -135 and Tony Martin is lined at +115. However, on DraftKings Laflare is priced $1,400 greater than Martin. I enjoy looking for line worth like that and that alone puts Martin in play in most formats. Martin also has got the much better odds to end this battle ITD, so that’s another plus with him. I like the floor for Martin in money games as well because Laflare isn’t very likely to complete if he wins. So, at $7.4k, we can afford a loss from Martin and take the things he could rack up in 15-minutes.
Fade of the week — Sergio Pettis ($8,600)
Sergio Pettis could get the win . However, he’s going to need to acquire a finish to pay off his $8.6k price tag. Sergio will not be heading for any takedowns in this battle, and he does not strike at a high enough speed for him to get 10x of the $8.6k. Sergio will be the better fighter on the feet, but when he doesn’t get a finish then he likely only scores 60-70 points in a win. Those low scores don’t cut it in $8.6k. There are only better plays points each dollar and people are the men I will be targeting. Sergio is a solid fade if you are making 20 or less lineups this weekend.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Beijing, China. The tournaments are much smaller on DraftKings this week, so I think that it’s a great week to focus more on cash games. The most important GPP is the $8 entrance that pays $10K to 1st place. That’s the best you to pursue in my view. I will have a few LUs that I placed into a lot of GPPs hoping I will win all of them, but I won’t have lots of LUs in total this week. Other than that, most of my play this week will be in the money games. Mostly H2Hs. With that said, here are a few plays I like for UFC Beijing, as well as my fade of the week.
Money Game play of the week — Song Yadong ($9,100)
I believe Song Yadong could be the best drama on the card that weekend and there are 4 fighters priced higher than him. Yadong is a -500 favored on Saturday and I think that is a fight the UFC is needing him to win in his home nation. I believe in championships, Yadong will be the highest owned fighter on the card with 3 women fighters priced over him, with much smaller chances of winning ITD. I think you may make a situation to fade him due to his possession in GPPs, but in money games we do not care about possession. I think this is a great place to lock in a triumph and maybe ~100-points, then try to find 3 more wins which we are able to afford. More often than maybe 4 wins gets the job done in cash games.
GPP drama of the week — Rashad Coulter ($8,400)
This battle has the 2nd highest FDGTD line on the card at -400. There’s also worth on Hu Yaozong together with him $600 cheaper and the gambling line being nearly even. Usually when there is value like that within an underdog it makes them among the more popular fighters on the card. I don’t think both of these men are UFC level fighters, but I am a bit more impressed by what I have observed from Coulter than the inexperienced Yaozong. I believe getting Coulter in GPP lineups in a lower possession than Yaozong makes sense that weekend in a struggle which shouldn’t move all 3-rounds. If both of those guys get an early end they will likely be on the winning lineup. I’m guessing Coulter are the reduced owned man of the two and that’s what makes him my GPP play of the week.
Underdog play of this week — Francis Ngannou ($7,500)
There really are not many underdogs I love to aim this week to get UFC Beijing. I have not loved creating lineups this week since I hate plugging in two underdogs when I think almost every favorite will find a win. I believe that the best underdog to target this week is Francis Ngannou since he does have a very clear route to success and he has won in this matchup before. The path to success for Ngannou is by knockout, and he has got the power to be able to KO anyone on the planet. If he can find a KO at $7.5k then he likely ends upon the 1st place lineup, particularly if it’s an early KO. In the first fight between these two men Blaydes was able to receive 2 takedowns, but Ngannou was able to get up pretty fast each time. If he is able to get up like that here, then I don’t see any way Blaydes are going to have the cardio to try to wrestle for 5-rounds. I believe Ngannou is the scarier guy on the toes and I don’t see Blaydes wanting to strike for long periods of time. I think Ngannou is reside for an upset here but on a card, I really don’t enjoy many underdogs I believe he’s the best you to target with his 1st round KO upsidedown. Fade of this week — Lauren Mueller ($9,200)
I truly don’t like targeting any of these ladies in the 9k range. I believe that they need to all get wins, but I don’t see any of them becoming 10x their wages. For Mueller, she would need at least 92 DK points to hit 10x and I believe she’s to receive a conclusion to make that happen. Mueller has 5 wins her MMA album and just 1 of those wins didn’t go to conclusion. She only scored 72 DK points in her UFC win. If she scores 72 at $9.2k then she will not be winning anyone a tournament. In addition, I think Zhang and Xiaonan have greater odds of winning compared to Mueller does so that’s why I chose her over both as my fade of the week. I will not be making a lot of lineups this week however if I had been making 20 lineups then Mueller would be on among these.
If you would like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on each fight, my personal approaches & recommendations, and my selection outlook for every single fight then it is possible to discover that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below: