Rule #1: Seeing the films nominated for the Oscars does not help you accurately predict who’ll win the Oscars
Rule #2: Paying attention to sites watching Oscar voters will help you accurately forecast the winners. In fact, I’d posit that someone who has watched none of those nominated movies but has followed Oscar Watch for the last two weeks will perform miles better than a movie fan who has been running around like a mad bastard trying to get all the nominated movies in front of their face in order to become”educated” whenever they cast their ballot.
Rule #3: When in doubt, go with the assumption that the most significant block of voters will behave less like curators of superior film and more like high school pupils opting a prom court.
I haven’t watched all the films which were nominated. I have seen less than half of these, in fact. This makes me educated on what has been nominated than large swaths of this Academy. And because I’m cleanly divorced from the idea that the supply of these treasured golden dildoes is based on merit, forecasting the Oscars is a totally mercenary exercise. That it should be, if you’re going to get the most pleasure from this glittery gladhandjob erupting this coming Sunday.
After the jump, your Oscar Ballot Cheat Sheet. Follow it carefully if you want to tidy up at whatever party you are attending (we suggest either the Hollywood Theatre’s shindig, or ShanRock’s Trivia and watching party), and read my explanations as to why those are the smart picks, and so you need to trust me because I am hardly wrong about whatever. Ever. Really.
Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Finest Director: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Finest Actress: Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Best Original Screenplay: Spike Jonze, Her
Best Adapted Screenplay: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Best Animated Feature Film: Frozen
Best Foreign Language Film: The Hunt
Finest Cinematography: Emmanuel Luzbeki, Gravity
Best Editing: Alfonso Cuaron, Mark Sanger, Gravity
Best Production Design: Adam Stockhausen, Alice Baker, 12 Years a Slave
Best Costume Design: Michael Wilkinson, American Hustle
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Adruitha Lee, Robin Mathews, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat, Philomena
Best Original Song: Kristen Anderson Lopez, Robert Lopez, Let it Proceed Frozen
Best Sound Mixing: Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, Chris Munro, Gravity
Best Sound Editing: Glenn Freemantle, Gravity
Best Visual Effects: Timothy Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk, Neil Corbould, Gravity
Best Documentary Feature: Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge S??rensen, The Act of Killing
Finest Documentary Short: Malcolm Clarke, Carl Freed, The Girl at Number 6
Best Animated Short: Lauren MacMullan, Dorothy McKim, Get a Horse
Best Live Action Short: Xavier Legrand, Just Before Losing Everything
The Whys and Wherefores:
The Academy does not reward comedies when they could reward an extremely significant movie instead. So comedies like Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle are right out. So are sci-fi films, and movies with notions which are generally”weird.” Those kinds of movies have been relegated to Screenplay nominations, normally. That is their consolation prize. This is the reason 12 Years will take Best Picture. I really don’t think they are going to split Picture and Director, either. Rewarding the movie is a concept in and of itself (similar to Crash was when it won), giving Steve McQueen and John Ridley figurines will populate that message: that the Academy is a thoughtful, compassionate group of people. They’re not, but they love pretending they are. These are people who appreciate the power of story, particularly if this storyline is about them and will make them feel great about themselves. The standard of the film is secondary to its capacity to help deliver that message.