Oscars Prop Bets: The Best Longshots to Target
Each year I use a model by Harvard graduate and baseball analyst Ben Zauzmer that is submitted at The Hollywood Reporter to win, nay, crush a hometown Oscars pool.
But holding bragging rights over your friends is not near as fun as carrying an offshore sportsbook to the cleaners, so I thoughtwhy not apply it to Oscars prop bets? This season I set my sites on using his model to locate the most inefficient and exploitable chances.
In comparing the proportions from Zauzmer’s model with the implied odds on Bovada, I managed to identify a couple of longshot, contrarian stakes offering significant value on account of this favorite, often Roma, being overvalued.
It is unlikely that a vast majority of these hit, but at these odds we actually only should bink one to have a profitable Sunday evening.
All credit belongs to the very sharp Ben Zauzmer, so please follow him on Twitter and test out all of his posts on The Hollywood Reporter (2 & 1 ), where you can see the model’s full results, plus his comment.
And for much more best Oscars prop bets, have a look at my appearance at the technical categories.
Best Picture
Favorite: Roma (-330)
Finest Bet: BlacKkKlansman (+3000)
Zauzmer’s version provides Roma a 32.6% to win best picture, and it can be a far cry from the implied Bovada likelihood of 76%. The version provides BlacKkKlansman a 17.5percent chance to win — a huge discrepancy from Bovada’s 3% indicated odds. It may be a longshot, but that’s too much value to pass up on.
Via Zauzmer:
“ROMA EARNED MAJOR HONORS FROM THE DIRECTORS GUILD AND BAFTAS — GOOD ENOUGH TO VAULT INTO FIRST PLACE, BUT NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO APPROACH 50 PERCENT. SO THERE’S ACTUALLY A BETTER CHANCE THAT ROMA LOSES THAN WINS, BUT IT’S STILL THE MOST LIKELY WINNER AMONG THE EIGHT CONTENDERS.”
Finest Manager Favorite: Alfonso Cuaron (-2000)
Best Bet: Yorgos Lanthimos (+3300)
The Favourite, starring Emma Stone, may not be receiving its proper due. (Image: Vox)
Similar to Best Picture, there is a massive discrepancy between the way Bovada and Zauzmer are handicapping the race.
Bovada’s suggested odds give Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) that a 95% chance of success, whereas Zauzmer’s model gives him a 65% chance. The value can be found with The Favourite director, Yorgos Lanthimos, where the version gives a higher chance to acquire (11.6%) than Bovada’s implied odds (2.8%).